For the first time in quite a while, we saw disappointing news in the monthly reports for two major data points. First, job growth weakened significantly. Although the prior months were revised upward—more than making up for the shortfall—the question remains as to whether the labor market is getting closer to tapped out. Second, business confidence pulled back significantly. It remains expansionary, but this drop is an unusual move and raises the question of whether the tariffs are finally starting to have an effect.

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