Economic Risk Factor Update: September 2018

Last month, I reported that business confidence had pulled back in July and that job growth had weakened. But the data bounced back in the most recent report, for August, suggesting that July was an outlier and the positive trends remain in place. While the...

Economic Risk Factor Update: August 2018

For the first time in quite a while, we saw disappointing news in the monthly reports for two major data points. First, job growth weakened significantly. Although the prior months were revised upward—more than making up for the shortfall—the question remains as to...

Economic Risk Factor Update: July 2018

Despite rising concerns as the Fed raised rates and trade tensions ballooned in June, the data remained significantly positive in all four major economic risk factors we track here. Job growth pulled back slightly on a monthly basis, but it continued to accelerate on...

Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2018

May’s data improved over an already solid April. Job growth accelerated further, and consumer confidence remained strong. Business confidence also bounced back, taking the trend back to positive territory. Finally, Fed policy continues to be stimulative, which is...

Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2018

April’s data continued to be solid overall. Job growth recovered and March’s weak report was revised upward significantly, easing one concern. Consumer confidence also bounced back a bit. More worrying is that business confidence moved further off the high, although...